Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?

Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020?

With the housing market staggered to some degree by the health crisis the country is currently facing, some potential purchasers are questioning whether home values will be impacted. The price of any item is determined by supply as well as the market’s demand for that item.

Each month the National Association of Realtors (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for the REALTORS Confidence Index.

Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between seller traffic (supply) and buyer traffic (demand) during this pandemic.

Buyer Demand

The map below was created after asking the question: “How would you rate buyer traffic in your area?”Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020? | Keeping Current MattersThe darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes is in that area. The survey shows that in 34 of the 50 U.S. states, buyer demand is now ‘strong’ and 16 of the 50 states have a ‘stable’ demand.

Seller Supply

The index also asks: “How would you rate seller traffic in your area?”Will Home Values Appreciate or Depreciate in 2020? | Keeping Current MattersAs the map above indicates, 46 states and Washington, D.C. reported ‘weak’ seller traffic, 3 states reported ‘stable’ seller traffic, and 1 state reported ‘strong’ seller traffic. This means there are far fewer homes on the market than what is needed to satisfy the needs of buyers looking for homes right now.

With demand still stronger than supply, home values should not depreciate.

What are the experts saying?

Here are the thoughts of three industry experts on the subject:

Ivy Zelman:

“We note that inventory as a percent of households sits at the lowest level ever, something we believe will limit the overall degree of home price pressure through the year.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American:

“Housing supply remains at historically low levels, so house price growth is likely to slow, but it’s not likely to go negative.”

Freddie Mac:

“Two forces prevent a collapse in house prices. First, as we indicated in our earlier research report, U.S. housing markets face a large supply deficit. Second, population growth and pent up household formations provide a tailwind to housing demand.”

Bottom Line

Looking at these maps and listening to the experts, it seems that prices will remain stable throughout 2020. If you’re thinking about listing your home, connect with a local real estate professional who can help you capitalize on the somewhat surprising demand in the market now.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/05/11/will-home-values-appreciate-or-depreciate-in-2020/


Posted on May 28, 2020 at 7:05 pm
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Ecomony, Home Prices, Housing Market | Tagged , ,

Pent UP Demand

We notice a very interesting dynamic in the market right now.

There was clearly a pent-up real estate demand created during the recent time when in-person showings were not allowed.  The numbers back it up.

First, a little background.  During a portion of “Shelter in Place,” all in-person viewing of properties ceased.  Instead, buyers spent time online viewing virtual tours and 3-D photography.

Even though clients could view homes virtually, purchase activity did slow down.

Today, showings are allowed again as long as clear protocols are followed.  We’ve implemented a Safe Showings program to keep our clients protected.

Now, to the numbers.

Through the first two weeks of May 2020, the number of closed properties is down compared to the same time period in 2019.

In most cases these closed properties are a result of purchase agreements that were written in April- a time when in-person showings were restricted.

So, a decrease in closings was expected.

However, the number of new written contracts so far this month is up considerably compared to the same time frame last year.

Specifically,

  • Metro Denver closed properties down 47%
  • Metro Denver new contracts up 6%
  • Northern Colorado closed properties down 41%
  • Northern Colorado new contracts up 19%

So, buyer activity is up compared to last year, even in our current environment.

This speaks to the resiliency of our market and the effect of low interest rates.


Posted on May 18, 2020 at 6:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Home Buying, Housing Market, Purchasing a Home, Real Estate Agent | Tagged , , ,

US Homeownership Rate Rises to Highest Point in 8 Years

U.S. Homeownership Rate Rises to Highest Point in 8 Years

For nearly two months, most of us have been following strict stay-at-home orders from our state and local governments. It is a whole new way of life that has put our daily lives on pause. On the other hand, many of us have also found a sense of comfort by slowing down and spending time at home, highlighting the feeling of security that comes with having a much-needed safe place for our families to live.

The latest results of the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) provided by the U.S. Census Bureau shows how Americans place immense value in homeownership, and it is continuing to grow in the United States. The results indicate that the homeownership rate increased to 65.3% for the first quarter of 2020, a number that has been rising since 2016 and is the highest we’ve seen in eight years (see graph below):U.S. Homeownership Rate Rises to Highest Point in 8 Years | Keeping Current MattersWhy is the rate increasing? The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explained:

“Strong owner household formation with around 2.7 million homeowners added in the first quarter has driven up the homeownership rate, especially under the decreasing mortgage interest rates and strong new home sales and existing home sales in the first two months before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the economy.”

The NAHB also emphasizes the year-over-year increase in each generational group:

“The homeownership rates among all age groups increased in the first quarter 2020. Households under 35, mostly first-time homebuyers, registered the largest gains, with the homeownership rate up 1.9 percentage points from a year ago. Households ages 35-44 experienced a 1.2 percentage points gain, followed by the 55-64 age group (a 0.9 percentage point increase), the 45-54 age group (a 0.8 percentage point gain), and the 65+ group age (up by 0.2 percentage point).” (See chart below):

U.S. Homeownership Rate Rises to Highest Point in 8 Years | Keeping Current MattersHomeownership is an important part of the American dream, especially in moments like this when many are feeling incredibly grateful for the home they have to shelter in place with their families. COVID-19 may be slowing our lives down, but it is showing us the emotional value of homeownership too.

Bottom Line

If you’re considering buying a home this year, contact a local real estate professional to set a plan that will help you get one step closer to achieving your dream.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/05/04/u-s-homeownership-rate-rises-to-highest-point-in-8-years/


Posted on May 8, 2020 at 6:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Home Ownership, Housing Market, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Confidence Is Key to Success for Young Homebuyers

Confidence Is the Key to Success for Young Homebuyers

Buying your first home can seem overwhelming. Thankfully, there’s a lot of great information out there to help you feel more confident as you learn about the process. For those in younger generations who aspire to buy, here are three things to consider sooner rather than later in your journey:

1. Understand What it Takes to Purchase a Home

Overall, Millennials make up the largest group of homebuyers in today’s real estate market, and Gen Z is not too far behind. A recent study shared by Freddie Mac shows, however, that Generation Z isn’t as confident in the homebuying process as Millennials. The best thing potential young buyers can do is understand what it takes to buy a home. Learn as much as you can about the mortgage processdown payment options, and the overall steps to take along the way.

2. Realize Your Opportunity to Build Wealth

Homeownership allows you the chance to put a small portion of the home’s value down when you buy, and then watch your appreciation grow on the full value of the home – not just on the down payment. It’s one of the best investments you can make, and a form of forced savings working in your favor over time. The added bonus? You get to live there, too.

3. Find Someone You Trust to Help You Through the Process

Having someone you trust to guide you through this process is invaluable. Finding a local real estate expert to help you navigate through the transaction and feel more confident as you make important decisions could be the best choice you make.

For Millennials and Gen Z’ers thinking about buying, today’s historically low interest rates combined with the outlook for future home appreciation is a big win. This means whatever you buy today, you’ll be bragging about 10 years from now. You can feel confident about that!

Bottom Line

If you’re ready, buying your first home sooner rather than later is one of the best decisions you can make. But there are many things to consider before taking that step, so it is critically important to educate yourself properly and find someone who can help you confidently navigate through the full journey.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/03/11/confidence-is-the-key-to-success-for-young-homebuyers/


Posted on April 6, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Home Buying, Homeownership, Housing Market | Tagged , , , , ,

Buying a Home: Do You Know the Lingo?

Buying a Home: Do You Know the Lingo? [INFOGRAPHIC] | Keeping Current Matters

Some Highlights:

  • Buying a home can be intimidating if you’re not familiar with the terms used throughout the process.
  • To point you in the right direction, here’s a list of some of the most common language you’ll hear along the way.
  • The best way to ensure your homebuying process is a positive one is to find a real estate professional who will guide you through every aspect of the transaction with ‘the heart of a teacher.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/03/13/buying-a-home-do-you-know-the-lingo-infographic-3/


Posted on April 3, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in appraisal, Buying a Home, closing costs, credit score, Loveland Real Estate, New Buyers, pre-approval letter, Real Estate Agent |

Yes, You Can Still Afford a Home

Yes, You Can Still Afford a Home

The residential real estate market has come roaring out of the gates in 2020. Compared to this time last year, the number of buyers looking for a home is up 20%, and the number of home sales is up almost 10%. The increase in purchasing activity has caused home price appreciation to begin reaccelerating. Many analysts have boosted their projections for price appreciation this year.

Whenever home prices begin to increase, there’s an immediate concern about how that will impact the ability Americans have to purchase a home. That thinking is understandable. We must, however, realize that price is not the only element to the affordability equation. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, recently explained:

“When demand increases for a scarce (limited or low supply) good, prices will rise faster. The difference between houses and other goods is that we buy them with a mortgage. So, it’s not the actual price that matters, but the price relative to purchasing power.”

While home prices have risen recently, mortgage interest rates have fallen rather dramatically. At the beginning of last year, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 4.46%. Today, that number stands over a full percentage point lower.

How does a lower mortgage rate impact your monthly mortgage payment?

Michael Hyman, a research data specialist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explained in a recent report that, even though home values have increased over the last year, the monthly cost of owning a home has decreased:

“With lower mortgage rates compared to one year ago, the payment as a percentage of income fell to 15.5%…from 17.1% a year ago.”

When purchasing a home, the price is not as important as its cost. Today, the monthly expense (cost) of purchasing the same house you could have purchased last year would be less. Or, you could purchase a more expensive home for the same monthly expense.

Fleming, looking at all aspects of the affordability equation (prices, wages, and mortgage rates), calculated the actual numbers in a recent blog post:

“Low mortgage rates and income growth triggered a 13.5% increase in house-buying power compared with a year ago.”

Since wages have increased and mortgage rates have dropped to historically low levels, this is a great time to buy your first home or move up to the home of your dreams. As Tendayi Kapfidze, Chief Economist at LendingTreerecently advised:

“If you are in a point in your life where you’re considering buying a home today, it’s a better time to buy than 10 years ago. If you can get a mortgage, you’re getting much lower interest rates, and it enables you to afford more.”

Bottom Line

Whether you’ve considered becoming a homeowner for the first time or have decided to sell your home and buy one that better suits your current lifestyle, now is a great time to sit with a real estate professional to discuss your options.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/03/12/yes-you-can-still-afford-a-home/


Posted on April 1, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Home Buying, Housing Market, Real Estate Market | Tagged , , , , ,

Real Estate Is Souring, But Not Like 2008

Real Estate Is Soaring, But Not Like 2008

Unlike last year, the residential real estate market kicked off 2020 with a bang! In their latest Monthly Mortgage MonitorBlack Knight proclaimed:

“The housing market is heating entering 2020 and recent rate declines could continue that trend, a sharp contrast to the strong cooling that was seen at this same time last year.”

Zillow revealed they’re also seeing a robust beginning to the year. Jeff Tucker, Zillow Economist, said:

“Our first look at 2020 data suggests that we could see the most competitive home shopping season in years, as buyers are already competing over…homes for sale.”

Buying demand is very strong. The latest Showing Index from ShowingTime reported a 20.2% year-over-year increase in purchaser traffic across the country, the sixth consecutive month of nationwide growth, and the largest increase in the history of the index.

The even better news is that buyers are not just looking. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed that closed sales increased 9.6% from a year ago.

This increase in overall activity has caused Zelman & Associates to increase their projection for home price appreciation in 2020 from 3.7% to 4.7%.

Are we headed for another housing crash like we had last decade?

Whenever price appreciation begins to accelerate, the fear of the last housing boom and bust creeps into the minds of the American population. The pain felt during the last housing crash scarred us deeply, and understandably so. The crash led us into the Great Recession of 2008.

If we take a closer look, however, we can see the current situation is nothing like it was in the last decade. As an example, let’s look at price appreciation for the six years prior to the last boom (2006) and compare it to the last six years:Real Estate Is Soaring, But Not Like 2008 | Keeping Current MattersThere’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did leading up to the housing crash.

Today, the strength of the housing market is actually helping prevent a setback in the overall economy. In a recent post, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist for First American explained:

“While the housing crisis is still fresh on the minds of many, and was the catalyst of the Great Recession, the U.S. housing market has weathered all other recessions since 1980. With the exception of the Great Recession, house price appreciation hardly skipped a beat and year-over-year existing-home sales growth barely declined in all the other previous recessions in the last 40 years…In 2020, we argue the housing market is more likely poised to help stave off recession than fall victim to it.”

Bottom Line

The year has started off very nicely for the residential housing market. If you’re thinking of buying or selling, now may be the time to meet with a real estate professional to discuss your options.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/03/04/real-estate-is-soaring-but-not-like-2008/


Posted on March 29, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Housing Market, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Real Estate Agent | Tagged , , , ,

How Your Tax Refund Can Move You Toward Homeownership This Year

How Your Tax Refund Can Move You Toward Homeownership This Year

If you’re looking to buy a home in 2020, have you thought about putting your tax refund toward a down payment? Homeownership may be one step closer than you think if you spend your dollars wisely this year.

Based on data released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Americans can expect an estimated average refund of $2,962 when filing their taxes this year.

The map below shows the average tax refund Americans received last year by state:How Your Tax Refund Can Move You Toward Homeownership This Year | Keeping Current MattersAccording to programs from the Federal Housing Authority, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae, many first-time buyers can purchase a home with as little as 3% down. Truth be told, a 20% down payment is not always required to buy a home, even though that’s a common misconception about homebuying. Veterans Affairs Loans allow many veterans to purchase a home with 0% down.

How can my tax refund help?

If you’re a first-time buyer, your tax refund may cover more of a down payment than you ever thought possible.

If you take into account the median home sale price by state, the map below shows the percentage of a 3% down payment that’s covered by the average tax refund:How Your Tax Refund Can Move You Toward Homeownership This Year | Keeping Current MattersThe darker the blue, the closer your tax refund gets you to homeownership in one of these programs. Maybe this is the year to plan ahead and put your tax refund toward a down payment on a home.

Bottom Line

Saving for a down payment can seem like a daunting task, but the more you know about what’s required, the more prepared you’ll be to make the best decision for you and your family. This tax season, your refund could be your key to homeownership.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/03/02/how-your-tax-refund-can-move-you-toward-homeownership-this-year/


Posted on March 25, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Homeownership, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

10 Steps to Buying a Home

10 Steps to Buying a Home [INFOGRAPHIC] | Keeping Current Matters

Some Highlights:

  • If you’re thinking of buying a home and you’re not sure where to start, you’re not alone.
  • Here’s a guide with 10 simple steps to follow in the homebuying process.
  • Be sure to work with a trusted real estate professional to find out the specifics of what to do in your local area.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/02/28/10-steps-to-buying-a-home-infographic-2/


Posted on March 23, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Home Buying, Purchasing a Home | Tagged , , ,

The #1 Misconception in the Homebuying Process

The #1 Misconception in the Homebuying Process

After over a year of moderating home prices, it appears home value appreciation is about to reaccelerate. Skylar Olsen, Director of Economic Research at Zillow, explained in a recent article:

 “A year ago, a combination of a government shutdown, stock market slump and mortgage rate spike caused a long-anticipated inventory rise. That supposed boom turned out to be a short-lived mirage as buyers came back into the market and more than erased the inventory gains. As a natural reaction, the recent slowdown in home values looks like it’s set to reverse back.”

CoreLogic, in their January 2020 Market Pulse Report, agrees with Olsen, projecting home value appreciation in all fifty states this year. Here’s the breakdown:

  • 21 states appreciating 5% or more
  • 26 states appreciating between 3-5%
  • Only 3 states appreciating less than 3%

The Misconception

Many believe when real estate values are increasing, owning a home becomes less affordable. That misconception is not necessarily true.

In most cases, homes are purchased with a mortgage. The current mortgage rate is a major component of the affordability equation. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost a full percentage point since this time last year.

Another major piece of the equation is a buyer’s income. The median family income has risen by 5% over the last year, contributing to the affordability factor.

Black Knight, in their latest Mortgage Monitor, addressed this exact issue:

 “Despite the average home price increasing by nearly $13,000 from just over a year ago, the monthly mortgage payment required to buy that same home has actually dropped by 10% over that same span due to falling interest rates…

Put another way, prospective homebuyers can now purchase a $48K more expensive home than a year ago while still paying the same in principal and interest, a 16% increase in buying power.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, realize that homes are still affordable even though prices are increasing. As the Black Knight report concluded:

“Even with home price growth accelerating, today’s low-interest-rate environment has made home affordability the best it’s been since early 2018.”

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/02/20/the-1-misconception-in-the-homebuying-process/


Posted on March 15, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Posted in Buying a Home, Home Ownership, Owning a Home | Tagged , , , ,