Pent UP Demand

We notice a very interesting dynamic in the market right now.

There was clearly a pent-up real estate demand created during the recent time when in-person showings were not allowed.  The numbers back it up.

First, a little background.  During a portion of “Shelter in Place,” all in-person viewing of properties ceased.  Instead, buyers spent time online viewing virtual tours and 3-D photography.

Even though clients could view homes virtually, purchase activity did slow down.

Today, showings are allowed again as long as clear protocols are followed.  We’ve implemented a Safe Showings program to keep our clients protected.

Now, to the numbers.

Through the first two weeks of May 2020, the number of closed properties is down compared to the same time period in 2019.

In most cases these closed properties are a result of purchase agreements that were written in April- a time when in-person showings were restricted.

So, a decrease in closings was expected.

However, the number of new written contracts so far this month is up considerably compared to the same time frame last year.

Specifically,

  • Metro Denver closed properties down 47%
  • Metro Denver new contracts up 6%
  • Northern Colorado closed properties down 41%
  • Northern Colorado new contracts up 19%

So, buyer activity is up compared to last year, even in our current environment.

This speaks to the resiliency of our market and the effect of low interest rates.

Posted on May 18, 2020 at 6:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Category: Buying a Home, Home Buying, Housing Market, Purchasing a Home, Real Estate Agent | Tagged , , ,

Corona Rates

Interest rates on a 30-year mortgage right now are just about the lowest they have ever been in history.

  • The rate today is 3.45%
  • The lowest-ever in November, 2012 was 3.31%
  • A year ago they were 4.35%

So, what gives?  Why are rates so low?  It turns out that the coronavirus is pushing rates down to historic lows.

The virus is causing uncertainty in the global financial markets.  When there is uncertainty, there tends to be a flight from stocks into bonds.

Specifically, there tends to be a flight to U.S. Treasuries.

High demand for U.S. Treasuries means that the interest rates on those bonds goes down.

30-year mortgage rates track the rates on the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Treasury just hit their lowest rates ever at 1.31%.

The uncertainty around the virus will likely keep rates down for the foreseeable future.

If you haven’t done so already, we encourage you to reach out to your mortgage lender to see if you would benefit by refinancing your loan.

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

Posted on March 4, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Category: Investing, Mortgage Rates, Purchasing a Home | Tagged , , , , , ,

Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts

Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts

We’re currently in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history. That has caused some to ask experts to project when the next economic slowdown (recession) could occur. Two years ago, 67% of the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) for the Economic Forecasting Survey predicted we would have a recession no later than the end of this year (2020). The same study done just three months ago showed more than one third of the economists still saw an economic slowdown right around the corner.

The news caused concern among consumers. This is evidenced by a recent survey done by realtor.com that shows 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur by the end of this year.

Wait! It seems the experts are changing their minds….

Now, in an article earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed only 14.3% of those economists now believe we’re in danger of a recession occurring this year (see graph below):Strength of the Economy Is Surprising the Experts | Keeping Current MattersThe WSJ article strongly stated,

“The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.”

This optimism regarding the economy was repeated by others as well.

CNBC, quoting Goldman Sachs economists:

“Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years. In fact, the firm’s economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.”

Barron’s:

“When Barron’s gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds—as we do every January for our annual Roundtable—we expect some consensus, some disagreement…But the 10 veteran investors and economists who convened in New York on Jan. 6 at the Barron’s offices agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year.”

Washington Post:

“The U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession.”

Robert A. Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank:

“I expect that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2020.”

Bottom Line

There probably won’t be a recession this year. That’s good news for you, whether you’re looking to buy or sell a home.

 

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/01/30/strength-of-the-economy-is-surprising-the-experts/

Posted on February 7, 2020 at 7:00 am
Tammy Fisher | Category: Northern Colorado Real Estate, Real Estate Market | Tagged ,